An International Strategy to Eliminate the Illicit Cultivation of Coca Bush and Opium Poppy (SCOPE)

Commission on narcotic drugs acting as preparatory body for the special session of the general assembly devoted to the fight against the illicit production, sale, demand, traffic and distribution of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances and related activities

Second session
Vienna, 16-20 March 1998
Item 2 (b) of the provisional agenda*

Preparations for the special session of the general assembly to consider the fight against the illicit production, sale, demand, traffic and distribution of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances and related activities and to propose new strategies, methods, practical activities and specific measures to strengthen international cooperation addressing the problem of drug abuse and illicit trafficking

Consideration of the reports of the informal inter-sessional meetings of the Commissionacting as preparatory body for the Special Session of the General Assembly on International Drug Control

Progress Report
*E/CN.7/1998/PC/1.
**This document has not been edited.
V.98-51405 (E)

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Introduction

1 . A synopsis of the strategy for the elimination of the coca bush and opium poppy was brought to the attention of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs at the third informal open-ended inter-sessional meeting E/CN.7/1997/PC/CRP.11). Since then, work on the strategy has progressed in cooperation with the Governments concerned and inter Governmental organizations. This paper summarizes the highlights of the strategy plan as it stood at the end of February 1998.

I. Action required of the Commission

2. The second session of the Commission acting as preparatory body for the special session of the General Assembly is invited to take into account this progress report in its review of international cooperation on eradication of illicit drug crops and promotion of alternative development programmes and/or its review of elements for inclusion in a draft political declaration. The Commission, in its capacity as preparatory body for the special session of the General Assembly, is invited to recommend that the General Assembly at its twentieth special session should endorse the initiative of the United Nations International Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) to develop and implement a plan for the elimination of the opium poppy and the coca bush, noting its innovative approach.

II. The Need for an International Strategy to Eliminate the Illicit Cultivation of Coca Bush and Opium Poppy

3. Today, over 20 million people throughout the world abuse heroin or cocaine. ne two most dangerous plant-based drugs are firmly established in traditional markets and are aggressively promoted elsewhere. In some developing countries, consumption is spreading like wildfire. Can the world rid itself of the scourge of heroin and cocaine? In consultation with Governments and other international agencies, the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention of the Secretariat is proposing a strategy to achieve this goal in 10 years.

4. The idea of launching, at this point in time, a global initiative to eliminate opiates and coca derivatives is strongly supported by an analysis of the situation. As the needs are pressing, a number of favourable factors have made it possible to act decisively. First, the supply of illicit opiates and coca derivatives today originates in a limited number of well-defined geographical areas. Those areas have many similarities and appear to have stabilized in the 1990s.

5. Secondly, after three decades of experience, the international community is now equipped with tested methodologies and the know-how to tackle the problem in the producing areas. The strengthening of the drug control mechanisms in the regions concerned has paved the way for full-scale interventions and most producing countries have adopted well-defined national strategies and action plans that are ready for implementation. At the same time, it is possible to monitor the areas at risk in order to prevent the "balloon effect" from nullifying the overall impact of elimination programmes.

6. Thirdly, to ensure and sustain an impact at the global level, there is no alternative to concerted and comprehensive action. This requires the expression of a clear political will and the adoption of a common agenda on the part of the international community. The twentieth special session of the General Assembly, to be held in June 1998, offers a historic opportunity for all positive forces to converge.

7. The strategy focuses on eight key countries in three regions: Bolivia, Colombia and Peru in Latin America; the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Afghanistan in south-east Asia; and Afghanistan and

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Pakistan in south-west Asia. It is supported by an array of measures at the global level, including a plan to prevent the displacement of illicit cultivation from one area to another as a result of pressure. Funding mechanisms have been identified to help provide the resources needed for the implementation of the strategy.

8. In presenting the strategy, the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention is aware of the fact that the fight against illicit drugs must be pursued on several fronts simultaneously. Besides the provisions included in the Strategy for Coca and Opium Poppy Elimination (SCOPE), more needs to be done to reduce the illicit demand for drugs worldwide. Similarly, urgent steps should be taken to overcome the threat of synthetic drugs. These key concerns are the object of numerous initiatives and will be addressed on the occasion of the twentieth special session of the General Assembly and beyond. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention has been a promoter and active participant in most such initiatives. At the same time, the Office is urging the international community to endorse SCOPE so that a large and indispensable piece of the drug control puzzle can fall into place.

III. Analysis of the Situation

A. The most dangerous plant-based drugs

9. With total production at 300 tonnes in 1996, heroin is found in virtually every country in the world. It is abused by an estimated 8 million people, of whom 69 per cent are in Asia and Oceania, 16 per cent are in Europe, 5 per cent are in Africa, 5 per cent are in Latin America and 5 per cent are in North America (Canada and the United States of America (see figure 1). Of all illicit drugs, heroin is consistently ranked first in reports on abuse-related mortality and hospital emergencies. With 800-1,000 tonnes produced in 1997 and at least 13 million addicts, the world prevalence of cocaine abuse is higher, although geographically more concentrated, notably in the Americas. About 43 per cent of cocaine abusers live in Latin America, 39 per cent in North America (Canada and the United States), 10 per cent in Europe, 7 per cent in Africa and 1 per cent in Asia and Oceania (see figure 2). While cocaine abuse is reported to have declined and stabilized in North America in recent years, it appears to be growing in Africa, Europe and Latin America. Heroin abuse, while stable in western Europe, is increasing in eastern Europe, North America and parts of Africa and Latin America.

10. These figures and trends indicate that the division between producer/developing countries and consumer/developed countries is increasingly becoming blurred. They also highlight the efforts by trafficking organizations to secure and expand their profits by seeking new outlets in untapped markets. Heroin and cocaine prices at the retail level have shown a high degree of elasticity, traffickers being able to adjust them to the purchasing power of their potential customers. For example, in 1996 the street price of a gram of heroin was US$ 20 in the United Republic of Tanzania, US$ 75 in the Syrian Arab Republic and up to US$ 380 Norway.

11. In many developing countries, including producing countries, migrations from rural areas bring young persons to cities with little employment opportunities and weakened social controls and family bonds. From the point of view of drug control, these factors create a potentially dangerous situation that needs to be dealt with as early as possible. Even in the areas where the coca bush and opium poppy are grown, the illicit production of opiates and coca derivatives has not been free of costs from the point of view of individual and public health. For example, in the rural communities of the northern part of the Lao People's Democratic Republic, there is one opium addict for every two opium-growing families; a similar proportion of opium addicts has been reported in Myanmar.

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Figure 1. Heroin consumption

Figure II. Cocaine consumption

12. Heroin and cocaine do not just bring untold suffering to individuals and their families. Their illicit production and trade have a destabilizing effect on whole economies and on the social and political well-being of nations. The links between the traffic in narcotics and the illicit weapons trade have long benefited insurgency movements and terrorist groups. The profits made by criminal organizations involved in trafficking are staggering, giving them the possibility to penetrate, corrupt and destabilize the economy and institutions of countries in different parts of the world.

B. Illicit supply of opiates and coca derivatives

13. In the rural areas of the main drug-producing countries in Asia and Latin America, about 700,000 families, or around 4 million people, depend on income derived from the cultivation of coca bush and opium poppy. Most of them live below the poverty level and receive on average 50 per cent of their income from this activity. Although the drug trade often helps them cope with food shortages and the vagaries of other agricultural markets, economic dependence on illicit crops is not sustainable in the long run. Forming an enclave in the national economy and excluded from mainstream development, the cultivation of coca bush and opium poppy leaves farmers in the hands of ruthless and unreliable middlemen. The Damoclean sword of forced eradication hangs over their fields. In some countries, such as Colombia, many have become mere employees in large commercial farms owned by traffickers of narcotic drugs. Most of the 700,000 families, given suitable alternatives, would gladly switch to other sources of income.

14. While legal cultivation for traditional and medical use has fallen since the 1930s, when the first international drug control conventions entered into effect, illegal production of both opium poppy and coca leaf has increased considerably in the last few decades, particularly in the 1970s and the 1980s. There are indications that, in the 1990s, decreases in the growth rate (of opium poppy) or even in production (of coca leaf) have started to appear. It would be premature, however, to speak of a sustainable and overall downward trend.

Opiates

Cultivation and production of opiates

15. Almost 90 per cent of the illicit opiates in the world originate in two main areas: south-west Asia and south-east Asia. The two main countries in which opium poppy is being cultivated are Afghanistan and Myanmar; the Lao People's Democratic Republic ranking a distant third. Illicit opium cultivation also takes

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place in China, Colombia, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, Viet Nam, as well as in countries in the Middle East.

16. Opium poppy cultivation showed a massive increase in the 1980s, that was followed by some stabilization in the mid-1990s. The increase occurred mainly in two countries: Afghanistan and Myanmar. Whereas, according to estimates in the United States International Narcotics Control Strategy Reports, Myanmar is the world's largest producer of opium, data of the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention seem to indicate that production in Afghanistan is greater than in Myanmar. The growth of production in recent years has been attributed less to an overall expansion in cultivation than to increased yield per hectare, reflecting primarily the shift of cultivation to high-quality soil on irrigated land in Afghanistan.

17. In several other producing countries-with the exception of Colombia (rising production) and Mexico (stable production)-illicit opium production has tended to decline over the last 10 years. The most notable examples are Pakistan and Thailand. ne Lao People's Democratic Republic and Viet Nam have also recorded downward trends, while illicit production in Lebanon has almost completely disappeared. However, some central Asian countries have the potential to quickly fill opium shortages caused by successful eradication campaigns across the border in Afghanistan.

18. World production of opium in 1996 was estimated at some 4,400 tonnes. Taking into account seizures, consumption in and around the production areas and losses in transport, about 3,300 tonnes of opium would have been refined to produce 330 tonnes of heroin. An estimated 10 per cent of that heroin was seized.

Trafficking in opiates

19. Armed convoys of traffickers move southward from the Afghan-Pakistan border areas to the coastline of Pakistan. On the way to western Europe, a favoured transit point is the freeport of Dubai, which is also used for trafficking in precursors in the opposite direction. Large quantities of illicit drugs from Afghanistan also reach major airports in the subregions, notably at Karachi, New Delhi and Bombay. Far larger quantities of illicit drugs are, however, being moved westward out of Afghanistan and Pakistan, following traditional routes through the Islamic Republic of Iran into the eastern areas of Turkey, where clandestine heroin laboratories are located. Heroin is then channelled through Istanbul and moved further into western Europe along a growing number of so-called "Balkan routes". The most popular vehicle used to transport illicit consignments from Turkey is the international road transport (TIR) lorry. Other emerging routes to western Europe lead northward out of Turkey, through the Caucasus, and northward out of Afghanistan, through the central Asian republics. Illicit consignments of opiates are sometimes transported across the Islamic Republic of Iran from Afghanistan and are diverted southward to the Syrian Arab Republic, from where they may subsequently pass into Lebanon and Israel.

20. Thailand remains a major outlet for heroin manufactured in Myanmar, facilitating access to the attractive trans-shipment zones of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Recent trends in respect of opium and heroin from south-east Asia have also shown a distinct shift in the movement of those substances from Myanmar to China, which provides overland routes to locations such as the Hong Kong Administrative Region and Taiwan Province of China, from where they are shipped to North America and Oceania. A more south-easterly route runs through the Lao People's Democratic Republic into Cambodia and southern Viet Nam. One recently detected northeasterly trafficking route leads from Myanmar and crosses the Lao People's Democratic Republic and China before entering northern Viet Nam.

21. The main destination for heroin from Colombia and Mexico is currently the United States, where it is distributed within specific zones by groups of Colombian or Mexican origin. Heroin from Mexico is almost

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invariably smuggled across that country's land border with the United States, while heroin from Colombia is most frequently transported by air direct to major cities in the United States, notably on the east coast.

Cocaine

Cultivation of coca bush and production of coca leaf

22. Bolivia, Colombia and Peru account for some 98 per cent of the world's coca leaf supply. Small-scale cultivation occurs in neighbouring countries such as Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela. Estimates of the Governments concerned and of the International Narcotics Control Strategy Reports suggest that global coca bush cultivation and coca production are following a downward trend in the 1990s, after two decades of massive increases. Declines have been reported in Bolivia and Peru. Production in Colombia, by contrast, is increasing.

23. According to production estimates of UNDCP, the world's largest producer of coca leaf is still Peru, followed by Bolivia and Colombia. The area under cultivation in Colombia already exceeds that in Bolivia. Some estimates also suggest the possibility that in Colombia production of coca leaf, which is estimated on the basis of a relatively low yield per hectare, might exceed the figure for Bolivia and be close to the figure for Peru.

24. More than 300,000 tonnes of coca leaf were produced annually in 1997, to be transformed into 800-1,000 tonnes of cocaine. Of the 800-1,000 tonnes of cocaine, 300 were seized; thus 500-700 tonnes of cocaine were available for consumption.

Trafficking in cocaine

25. Cocaine is smuggled out of the Pacific and Atlantic points of Colombia into North America, western Europe and east Asia, as well as to the growing markets of Africa, Oceania and central and eastern Europe. The Caribbean "corridor" has long been exploited by traffickers transporting cocaine to western European markets; now the islands of the eastern part of the North Atlantic (e.g. the Azores and Cape Verde) are following suit. There are indications that the traditional route for smuggling cannabis resin (hashish), leading from Morocco to the southern Iberian peninsula and France, is now also being utilized for the trans-shipment of cocaine. Links forged between Colombian criminal organizations and their Italian and eastern European counterparts have facilitated the distribution of cocaine throughout Europe as a whole, with Spain remaining a major entry point.

26. Law enforcement efforts in the Caribbean have triggered some displacement of trans-shipment activity to islands further east and to Central America. Cocaine traffickers have also shown a readiness to move their consignments to seaports in Latin American countries to the south. South Africa is also an emerging cocaine trafficking area. Agreements have been negotiated between Colombian and Mexican criminal gangs whereby cocaine is first transported to Mexico by Colombians and then smuggled across the United States border by Mexicans. Other significant aspects of the Latin American cocaine trade include the influence of west African trafficking groups and the use of eastern Europe as a back-door route to western European markets. The Moscow airport and the seaports of the eastern Baltic have featured in the latter activity, indicating the existence of links between Colombian and eastern European criminal gangs.

IV. The Strategy

27. Efforts to control the production of opium started at the turn of the twentieth century with the convening at Shanghai of the first international conference on narcotic drugs, which became known as the Opium Commission. Through a series of international conferences and conventions, the present system progressively took shape, inspired by the will to limit the production of raw materials to medical and scientific needs and to

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prevent diversion from licit channels, as well as illicit drug production. The current control framework is defined by the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 as amended by the 1972 Protocol (1), and by article 14 of the United Nations Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances of 1988 (2).

28. With respect to the production of opium for medical purposes, India is the sole licit exporter of opium. Licit cultivation of opium poppy to produce poppy straw has taken place primarily in Australia, France, Spain and Turkey in the 1990s. Under existing provisions of national laws for the traditional consumption of coca leaves, a fixed number of hectares of coca bush are licitly cultivated in Bolivia and in Peru. The estimates of licit production of raw opium to be used for the production of opium derivatives needed for medical and scientific purposes in 1996 amounted to about 1,300 tonnes. For the same year, world illicit production exceeded 4,300 tonnes. Licit requirements cannot absorb any further coca leaf and opium production and there is no alternative to the elimination of current illicit cultivation under the regime of the international drug control system.

29. The general ban on cultivation for purposes other than medical and scientific was tempered, under article 49 of the 1961 Convention, by the latitude to apply transitional measures for the production of opium and coca leaf for traditional consumption. With a grace period of 15 years for opium and 25 years for coca leaf, all cultivation should have stopped by 1979 and 1989 respectively. Those targets have not been reached. However, some 30 years after the entry into force of the 1961 Convention, the situation has evolved and the international community appears to be ready for the enforcement of the total ban. Under the schedule proposed in SCOPE, all cultivation other than cultivation for scientific and medical purposes would be over by the year 2008.

30. In the last 25 years Governments and international agencies have acquired considerable experience in successful programmes against illicit cultivation. A combination of alternative development and law enforcement activities has brought significant progress in well-defined geographical areas, yet the overall impact on global supply and demand has been modest. lt has become obvious that the ultimate success of an elimination effort depends on political commitment, geographical universality and technical comprehensiveness. This translates into the need to have worldwide adherence to, and compliance with, the international regime defined by the three United Nations drug control conventions, as well as reliance on a balanced approach addressing simultaneously the supply of and the demand for illicit drugs. For the success of a global elimination strategy, three elements are required: coordination, balanced approach and financial resources.

Coordination

Problem: Inadequacy of concerted efforts and comprehensive geographical coverage
Solution: Individual commitment to a collective approach
Action: Adoption of SCOPE as a common strategy

31. Alternative development projects have mostly been successful in the immediate area of intervention. In Peru, in project areas, coca cultivation has been reduced by 95 per cent. In the Dir district of Pakistan, poppy cultivation may soon disappear. In Thailand, alternative development measures have led to virtual elimination of opium poppy cultivation. Successes in the past have always been geographically limited and threatened by what is dubbed the "balloon effect". Thus, for instance, it has been argued that excellent results achieved in countries such as Pakistan and Thailand were greatly facilitated by the displacement of cultivation into

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neighbouring Afghanistan and Myanmar. Until now, there has never been a comprehensive undertaking tackling all the producing areas at the same time, with concomitant monitoring of the areas where new cultivation could start.

32. The objective is to use the experience gained from the geographically limited programmes practised so far to design appropriate approaches on a larger scale. Despite some local specificities, the determinants of the illicit supply of opiates and coca derivatives present fundamental similarities in all the producing areas, enabling the implementation of similar methodologies in the context of a common, concerted approach.

33. What is therefore required is the simultaneous launching and implementation of elimination programmes in all the producing areas. Altogether, opium poppy and coca bush cultivation cover a relatively small area, about 4,500 square kilometres-roughly equivalent to one half the size of the island of Puerto Rico. At the same time, a thorough monitoring of all the areas at risk is indispensable as it will make it possible to react rapidly to attempts to develop new areas of cultivation.

Balanced approach

Problem: Fragmented approach with programmes focusing on one aspect of the problem only
Solution: Implementation of a multisectoral and balanced approach
Action: Launching of comprehensive national and regional plans in the context of SCOPE

34. Although it has not always been the case, it is now widely agreed that tackling simultaneously all stages of the cycle (cultivation and production/trafficking/consumption/reinvestment of illicit profits) maximizes the impact of action undertaken in each stage. The primary focus of SCOPE is on the first stage of the cycle. Complementary objectives have been identified as essential elements of a comprehensive and balanced approach.

35. While the problem of opiates and coca can be described schematically as a chain linking rural production and urban consumption, the early drug control approaches concentrated mostly on the trafficking segment, trying to break the link in the middle through reliance on law enforcement methods. In spite of increasing efforts and successes, it is estimated that, on average, not more than 10 per cent of the heroin supply and 30 per cent of the cocaine supply can be intercepted. Although the understanding of the problem and the approaches used have evolved, overall efforts during the last 30 years have still placed more emphasis on law enforcement than on socio-economic approaches.

36. During the l980s, the concept of a balanced approach, tackling with equal vigour each stage of the process, emerged and found its expression at the international level in instruments such as the Comprehensive Multidisciplinary Outline of Future Activities in Drug Abuse Control (3) or the Political Declaration and Global Programme of Action adopted by the General Assembly at its seventeenth special session (Assembly resolution S-1712, annex). At the regional and national levels, drug control plans were adopted encompassing multisectoral situation analysis and implementation strategies.

37. A similar evolution took place regarding strategies to eliminate cultivation. Although the elimination of illicit cultivation through the provision of alternative sources of income was also attempted as early as the

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1970s, the early reliance on a narrow crop-substitution approach progressively evolved in the 1980s and 1990s into broader alternative development strategies, taking into account and addressing the full spectrum of the socio-economic determinants of coca bush and opium poppy cultivation, in combination with deterrent law enforcement and forced eradication measures.

Financial resources

Problem: Low level of resources in support of alternative development
Solution: Additional resources for alternative development
Action: Higher priority in national resource allocation and integration of producing areas into socioeconomic development plans; provision of external assistance for alternative development

38. Over the last 10 years, technical cooperation disbursement in alternative development amounted to about US$ 700 million worldwide. Of that amount, 36 per cent was provided by UNDCP and 64 per cent was provided by other, mostly bilateral, sources. The total investment remained small and was insufficient to fund alternative development programmes in all the producing areas.

39. Me relatively modest level of funds made available can be illustrated by comparing them to total official development assistance (ODA) provided to countries producing coca and opium in 1995. Assuming an average annual disbursement by UNDCP and other agencies of US$ 70 million, collective and UNDCP investments in alternative development were equivalent to a mere 1.5 per cent and 0.56 per cent, respectively, of total ODA received by those countries each year.

40. To ensure a credible and sustainable effort, more resources must be channelled to alternative development programmes. The initiative should be taken by producing countries, in concert with, and with the support of, external donors. Alternative development programmes must become integral parts of national development strategies and public expenditure budgets. Based on the concept of shared responsibility, external donors should allocate more technical and financial assistance to the producing countries to support the implementation of their plans to eliminate illicit cultivation.

Main objective: Worldwide elimination of the illicit cultivation of coca bush and opium poppy and of the production of illicit opiates and coca derivatives by the year 2008
Complementary objective 1: Elimination of illicit trafficking in opiates and coca derivatives
Complementary objective 2: Enhanced control of chemical precursors used in the illicit production of opiates and coca derivatives
Complementary objective 3: Elimination of the abuse of illicit opiates and coca derivatives

41. Given the regional nature of the illicit cultivation of opium poppy and coca bush and the threat of the "balloon effect", a regional approach to the problem is essential. This will require, when feasible, the involvement of existing or strengthened regional cooperation mechanisms. The regional action plans encompass action undertaken, or to be undertaken, at the regional and country levels.

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42. Three regions, corresponding to the production areas, have been identified in the context of SCOPE. Eight key countries within those regions will receive special attention through specific plans elaborated by their Governments.

A. South-east Asia

43. The problem of opium production in Myanmar dwarfs most other drug-control challenges in east Asia. However, the elimination of drug crops in east Asia will require strong subregional partnerships that must involve the countries concerned collectively as well as individually.

44. A memorandum of understanding on drug control was signed in 1993 by the Governments of China, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Thailand, together with UNDCP. Cambodia and Viet Nam joined in 1995. Under the memorandum of understanding, a subregional action plan was launched to complement national programmes and projects designed to respond to more specific national priorities. The emphasis is on the development of operational cooperation in law enforcement, although interventions in demand reduction, alternative development and institution-building are also included.

45. Over the next 10 years, the main priorities in south-east Asia, in the context of SCOPE, will be as follows:

• Elimination of opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar;
• Elimination of opium poppy cultivation in the Lao People's Democratic Republic;
• Completion and consolidation of the elimination of opium poppy cultivation in Viet Nam;
• Prevention of the displacement of illicit cultivation in the areas at risk in the region;
• Elimination of the abuse of opiates in the region;
• Further development of political cooperation in drug control at the subregional level;
• Further development of operational cooperation, notably in measures to counter drug trafficking at the regional level.

Myanmar

46. Myanmar, which accounts for about one third of world opium production, is by far the largest supplier of opium in the region. Opium poppy is grown as a cash crop and its cultivation mostly takes place in the isolated and underdeveloped areas of the Wa and Kokang areas in northern and eastern Shan State, close to the Chinese border. Less than 10 per cent of the opium produced is consumed locally and the rest is converted into heroin in the border areas. China is the main source of the precursors used for the transformation of opium into heroin.

47. Recent developments include the signing of ceasefires between the Government of Myanmar and insurgent ethnic groups and the surrender of Khun Sa and the Mong Tai army in January 1996. Those developments have paved the way for Government access to, and economic development in, opium-producing areas. As the agreements mature and as control and administration are being extended throughout those areas, an environment is developing in which controlled reduction of illicit drug production and trafficking are becoming-possible. As a result, the ability of international agencies to work in those remote areas is also steadily improving. The Government has incorporated the goal of eliminating all opium poppy cultivation into its master plan for the development of border areas. In 1995, the Wa Central Committee drafted a plan to eradicate opium

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poppy cultivation in a phased programma of eradication and development in the areas where it is present. In 1997, a five-year drug control and development programma in the southern Wa area of eastern Shan State was finalized by the Government, with the cooperation of the Wa authorities and UNDCP. One constraint to further progress is the current impasse with respect to the provision of external assistance and loans. Most bilateral and multilateral aid (notably from the international financial institutions) has been suspended. The admission of Myanmar to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July 1997 might result in the situation changing, from both a political and an economic standpoint. Under a 10-year plan, the expansion of alternative development will proceed in Shan State, starting in the area covered by the above-mentioned programma, together with complementing activities, notably in law enforcement.

Lao People's Democratic Republic

48. The Lao People's Democratic Republic started developing its drug control policy and programmes in 1989. It is the second largest opium producer in the region, accounting for about 4 per cent of world production (1 40 tonnes in 1996). The vast and mountainous northern half of the country, where 2 1,000 hectares are under opium cultivation, is expected to be at risk of increased opium production should there be a significant reduction in such production in Myanmar. For example, after Khun Sa's surrender, the temporary disorganization of the opium supply in Myanmar resulted in increases in the price of opium and in its production in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Because of its central location in south-east Asia, drug and precursor traffickers in the region have begun using the Lao People's Democratic Republic as a transit country. In the framework of a national drug control master plan launched in 1994, a network of decentralized units of the Counter Narcotics Police is being progressively expanded throughout the Lao People's Democratic Republic, alternative development projects have been launched in 5 of the 10 northern provinces and the drug control law was revised in 1996 to include the prohibition of opium production. To reach the SCOPE target for the elimination of illicit cultivation, the coverage of alternative development programmes will be extended to include all 10 northern provinces and activities in law enforcement, institution-building and demand reduction will be intensified. In collaboration with UNDCP, the Lao Government has also been strengthening its monitoring capacity with the launching of national surveys and the current establishment of a comprehensive monitoring system linked to a computerized database. The ratification of the 1988 Convention and a further improvement of national drug control legislation are planned for 1998.

Viet Nam

49. Viet Nam has been vigorously eradicating opium production in the north-western part of the country. Production in 1996 was down to a marginal 9 tonnes. However, there are concerns that sufficient alternatives have not yet been provided to the poppy-growing communities and that the results obtained so far might not yet be sustainable. lt is therefore important to consolidate the results and to continue providing limited financial support to the Vietnamese Government for alternative development activities. In addition, trafficking, aimed at supplying not only international markets but also the large addict population in Viet Nam, has been increasing during the past few years and has at times been aggravated by problems involving corruption. Severe penalties and determined efforts by the Vietnamese law enforcement officers to counter trafficking in narcotic drugs have resulted in an increasing number of seizures and arrests; it is important to support such efforts.

B. South-west Asia

50. The main drug control concern in south-west Asia remains Afghanistan. Not only is Afghanistan the world's largest illicit producer of opium, but the consequences of the civil war have seriously impeded drug control efforts in the country. However, past and ongoing initiatives in the subregion and recent developments within the country itself may create better opportunities to tackle opium production.

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51. A memorandum of understanding was signed in May 1994 by the Governments of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan, together with UNDCP, with an option for Afghanistan to join at a later stage when feasible; the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and UNDCP signed a memorandum of understanding in March 1995; and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and UNDCP signed a memorandum of understanding in August 1995. Moreover, a technical consultation between India and Pakistan was held at Vienna in July 1994 under the auspices of UNDCP, resulting in an agreed action plan calling for the two countries to meet at regular intervals at the policy and operational levels.

52. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan have cooperated to enhance the capacities of their law enforcement agencies in border areas. An evaluation mission conducted in 1997 confirmed that the initiative had exceeded expectations, resulting, inter alia, in increased drug seizures along the common borders of the two countries. A project to control illicit trafficking in precursors in the opposite direction in south and south-west Asia was launched in 1995; the project, which will be implemented over four and one half years, is to provide assistance to countries in those regions for the development of national control systems aimed at preventing diversion from the licit trade.

53. The following priorities have been identified for drug control activities in south-west Asia:

• Elimination of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan;
• Consolidation of the elimination of opium poppy cultivation in Pakistan;
• Prevention of displacement of cultivation in the areas at risk in the region;
• Elimination of the abuse of opiates in the region, notably in Pakistan;
• Further strengthening of the capacity to counter trafficking along the borders of Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan;
• Further strengthening of the law enforcement capacity in the countries surrounding Afghanistan, namely Iran (Islamic Republic of), Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as subregional cooperation among those countries, with a view to improving the interdiction of drugs coming from Afghanistan, as well as precursors used in the manufacturing of opiates in the subregion;
• Further development of the coordination of drug control activities of all 10 ECO member States (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

Afghanistan

54. In Afghanistan, the largest opium producer, there are more than 200,000 families engaged in opium cultivation in the southern provinces of Helmand and Kandahar and the north-eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Badakhshan. Refining capacities have developed in Afghanistan and trafficking is mostly under the control of powerful cartels headed by Pakistanis and some Afghans with connections to Turkish and multinational syndicates. The civil war has pushed the country into a situation of extreme poverty and the conflict between the Taliban and the three major opposing parties continues. However, 96 per cent of the opium poppy cultivation takes place in areas now under the control of the Taliban, who announced a ban on poppy cultivation and opium trafficking in October 1997.

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55. In March 1997, UNDCP launched its new programma in Afghanistan, with a duration of four years and a budget of US$ 16.4 million. It targets four opium-producing districts with alternative development activities over a period of four years (1 997-2000), with a two-year consolidation phase. The participation of the recipients in the planning and implementation of interventions and the close collaboration with other aid agencies are important elements of this undertaking. Law enforcement concerns are also addressed. While action against the processing of and trafficking in illicit drugs must be taken by the Afghan authorities themselves, UNDCP plans to support efforts to deter traffickers and dismantle clandestine laboratories.

Pakistan

56. Previously a major opium producer, the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan produced less than 1 per cent of the estimated world opium production in 1996. Alternative development assistance in the Dir district, which accounts for approximately 40 per cent of the opium production in Pakistan, has contributed significantly to the reduction in opium poppy cultivation in that area. However, there is the possibility of an increase in opium production in 1998 and the North-West Frontier Province can be considered an area at risk. Pakistan estimates that it has a population of about 1.5 million of heroin addicts and trafficking through the country is intended for local consumption as well as further smuggling to outside markets. The Pakistan Government has declared a complete ban on opium poppy cultivation by the year 2000 and has relied on a combination of alternative development and eradication measures, mostly negotiated with the local community leaders. SCOPE will devote particular attention to offsetting the possible resurgence of poppy cultivation in areas bordering with Afghanistan.

C. Latin America

57. In Latin America, the general objective is to move decisively beyond the demonstration projects carried out so far. There is now a need to elaborate and implement comprehensive and Government-led national alternative development programmes that are clearly aimed at reaching targets for eliminating coca crops on the one hand and at implementing sound and sustainable rural development programmes on the other hand.

58. ne implementation of SCOPE will require in the first instance stronger integrated national strategies for harnessing the necessary resources to replicate successful models on a wider scale, which will necessitate the integration into alternative development of all relevant national and external resources under a multisectoral approach.

59. Simultaneously, it is important to ensure that Bolivia, Colombia and Peru have the essential human and financial resources at their disposal to effectively plan and coordinate national alternative development programmes. Improving the capacity of agencies to promote multisectoral coordination and identify inter-institutional synergies at the regional, national and local levels in support of alternative development will also be a key objective.

60. Opium poppy cultivation, currently a problem in Colombia and Mexico, constitutes a recent and purely criminal phenomenon devoid of cultural heritage. Accordingly, it should remain subject to eradication and ineligible for alternative development.

61. The implementation of SCOPE will be coordinated with the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD) of the Organization of American States. SCOPE is fully consistent with the Anti-Drug Strategy in the Hemisphere, adopted by CICAD in 1996, in particular paragraphs 20-26, on supply reduction.

62. In the context of SCOPE, the main priorities for the next l0 years will be as follows:

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• Elimination of coca and opium production in Colombia;
• Elimination of coca cultivation and production in Peru;
• Elimination of coca cultivation and production in Bolivia;
• Prevention of the displacement of coca and opium poppy cultivation in the areas at risk in the region;
• Elimination of trafficking in opiates and coca derivatives in the region;
• Further strengthening of the regional cooperation in drug control through CICAD and specific memoranda of understanding.

Bolivia

63. The areas under coca bush cultivation in Bolivia are concentrated in the Cochabamba and Los Yungas areas. Main trafficking routes go through Brazil and Paraguay, as well as, but to a lesser extent, Argentina and Chile, by land, river and air. Bolivia is also used as a transit point by Peruvian traffickers. Chemical precursors are smuggled into the country out of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. About 140 family-based trafficking organizations operate in Bolivia, with links to international trafficking networks.

64. Under the 1988 Coca and Controlled Substances Law (Law 1008), the territory of Bolivia has been divided into traditional, transitional and illicit coca production areas. Up to 12,000 hectares of licit coca bush cultivation is authorized under Law 1008. In the transitional areas, coca is to be gradually reduced through a process of voluntary and compensated eradication, as well as alternative development measures. New coca bush plantations are forbidden in transition areas and subject to forced eradication. The drug control master plan for the period 1998-2002 was approved by the new Government at the end of December 1997. According to the plan, all illicit and transitional coca bush cultivation will be eliminated by the year 2002.

Colombia

65. Colombia remains the world's largest producer of cocaine and ranks second after Peru in coca bush cultivation. As a result of the eradication programma of the police force established to counter drug trafficking and a disease that attacks the coca bush, there has been a significant displacement of coca bush cultivation eastward, towards the interior of the Amazon and Orinoco basins. Opium poppy cultivation started in the early 1990s and has had a tendency to spread from the southern areas of the country to the Andes.

66. The involvement of organized crime in illicit drug cultivation has included the ownership of illicit crop plantations and the organization of a network of local markets for the purchase of coca paste. It is estimated that commercial farms equipped with processing facilities account for more than one half of the coca bush cultivation (on plots of 10-80 hectares) and 80 per cent of the opium production. Guerrilla and paramilitary groups operating in areas under illicit crop cultivation have adopted an ambiguous position, often condemning the drug business while providing protection to coca farmers and logistic facilities to traffickers of narcotic drugs. Despite significant efforts to counter drug trafficking and the dismantling of the Cali and Medellin cartels, Colombian criminal organizations remain prominent, although they now are more fragmented and face competition from the Mexican cartels. In addition, trafficking in precursors has generated the creation of "precursor cartels". In 1994, the Colombian Government launched a National Alternative Development Plan (PLANTE). The PLANTE action plan for the period 1995-1998 calls for the substitution of about 30,000 hectares of illicit crops. However, progress in securing the financial package has been a problem. An

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important prerequisite for the implementation of the elimination programma is progress on the peace and territorial control process vis-à-vis guerrilla and paramilitary movement.

Peru

67. Peru has been the largest coca producer for the past l0 years, although there has been a reported decrease of coca bush cultivations in the 1990s. The decrease is mostly attributed to a fall in prices for cocaine base and the interception programma launched by the Peruvian air force against the Colombian-Peruvian air bridge used to ship cocaine base from Peru. Up to 30 per cent of the harvested dried coca leaves might be converted in Peru into cocaine hydrochloride and 50 per cent might be exported as coca paste or coca base to neighbouring countries, the rest being seized in various forms by the Peruvian authorities. Colombia has been the main destination for Peruvian coca paste and coca base. Eradication is mostly limited to seedbeds as the Colombian Government does not eradicate mature coca bushes without prior provision of economic alternatives. In 1996, Peru approved a law for the fight against drug trafficking and created Comisión de la Lucha contra el Consumo de Drogas (CONTRADROGAS), a national drug commission, to coordinate the activities of the various government agencies involved in drug control and to implement some of the important elements of the national drug strategy. CONTRADROGAS became operational in early 1997 and elaborated various strategy and planning documents, including a national drug control strategy for the period 1998-2000 and a national plan for alternative development for the period 1998-2000. The national plan for alternative development calls for an initial reduction of 50 per cent of the coca bush cultivation within a five-year period. More than one half of the resources needed would be provided by the Peruvian Government.

D. Global support and monitoring

68. Presented below is a summary of activities undertaken at the international level to provide support to, or complement, activities directly targeting the elimination of illicit cultivation. Some activities are included in separate programmes, while others are designed in the context, and for the purpose, of SCOPE.

Monitoring of illicit crop cultivation

69. An essential component of SCOPE will be a global system for monitoring illicit cultivation of coca and opium poppy and detect its possible extension to areas at risk. Taking advantage of proven methods and recent technological advances, the system will rely on a combination of remote sensing, aerial photography and ground survey elements and include provisions to quickly identify new areas of illicit crop cultivation. The purpose is to place at the disposal of the international community an overview of the global situation with regard to illicit crop cultivation and to provide a comprehensive and transparant method of monitoring and verification. lt will also be possible to provide guidelines and technical assistance to Governments if necessary for the implementation of surveys. ne system will be introduced in cooperation with the countries concerned and will take into account surveys already conducted by national authorities or envisaged by national drug control plans.

70. The satellite component of the monitoring system is being developed in collaboration with space agencies. It will be launched through technical agreements between the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention and the agencies for the identification of the most advanced coca and opium poppy detection methodologies. The initial phase will also establish operational arrangements for the routine functioning of the monitoring system on a commercial basis. The technical agreements would include the transfer of technology and training necessary to install an in-house capability within the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention for verification of the monitoring results. The Office for Outer Space Affairs of the Secretariat is providing technical advice to the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention in all aspects related to the establishment of the satellite component of the monitoring system.

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71. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention has acquired a diverse and solid experience in ground surveys-and in some cases aerial surveys-both in alternative development project areas and country-wide. Such surveys will continue to play a significant role for: (a) project planning and management; (b) yield estimates; (c) provision of ground data for satellite imagery processing, analysis and interpretation (geographical information systems, crop calendars); and (d) for control and possible updating and refinement of the remote sensing methodology. In each country, a verification of results and feedback mechanism for the remote sensing activities will be institutionalized. In countries or areas where displacement could occur, a rapid assessment will be carried out periodically to monitor the possible emergence or increase of cultivation from limited to significant areas.

72. A central monitoring unit will be established in the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention for three main purposes. First, the unit will interact with the parties involved, including Governments, the space agencies developing the operational methodologies and private sector partners producing the monitoring products (maps, files, statistics etc.). The unit will ensure that those parties have the necessary information at their disposal and will act as the central repository of all information. Secondly, the central monitoring unit will have the basic technical responsibility to review, evaluate and verify results. A third function of the central monitoring unit will be to provide an early warning system for possible displacement areas. Assessment teams will be formed to conduct periodic monitoring activities and will respond rapidly to information received from the areas where the emergence of illicit crop cultivation may take place.

Scientific research on eradication agents

73. Studying the effects of biological pathogens on the coca bush and opium poppy can assist efforts to eliminate illicit opiates and coca derivatives. Two protocols are available for research and know-how to enable current technological developments in the eradication of illicit crops to be put into practice and to assess the environmental impact of the proposed methods using approaches approved by the international pesticide regulatory authorities.

74. Environmental impact studies are also included in the protocols, which will focus initially on herbicides currently used for control of illicit narcotic drug plants and which may be required for use in other geographical areas. The proposed research will also entail the identification of new herbicidal chemicals that are environmentally safe and effective in controlling the narcotics plants in order to keep pace with the rapid advances in herbicide chemistry and to allow timely adoption of any chemical offering advantages of increased environmental safety, efficacy and economic efficiency. The research will also identify biological control methods appropriate to both the classical strategy (using agents that establish, multiply, spread and persist in the areas producing the illicit crops) and the microbial herbicide strategy (of inundating target plants with a specific plant pathogenic organism). Surveys and collections of alternative biological control agents are to ensure continued availability of suitable agents, should any of the lead candidates be rejected as a result of new research findings or countermeasures implemented by the drug traffickers. Taxonomic studies of the narcotic plants are being carried out, using modern techniques of genetic fingerprinting, in order to establish the range of genetic variation present in populations in the producer countries.

75. UNDCP also intends to test, through an applied research programma in Uzbekistan, a biological control agent based on the plant pathogenic fungus Dendryphion papaveraceae. The agent is claimed to have been found in other central Asian States. An important step will be to confirm its natural occurrence throughout the region (in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), which would contribute to ascertaining whether it is environmentally safe for use in poppy-growing areas, especially in central Asia.

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Support to the elimination of illicit trafficking in opiates, coca derivatives and their precursors

76. Compatibility and harmonization of national drug control legislations, consistent with the international drug control conventions, is fundamental to creating effective frameworks for concerted action by the international community. Weaknesses in national drug control laws are quickly identified by drug traffickers and are often a critical factor in their selection of trafficking routes, collaborating partners and sites for particular activities (e.g. money-laundering and the acquisition of precursors). Compatibility and harmonization of national legislation are often a prerequisite for the development of judicial cooperation between countries.

77. The Legal Advice Programme of the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention maintains a reference collection of existing national drug control laws that facilitates identification of weaknesses and loopholes, as well as of innovative best practice. It also provides technical assistance to countries in the form of model legislation, expertise in assisting the assessment and upgrading of national legislation, in the training of Government officials and in the development of judicial cooperation agreements.

78. Since drug trafficking has implications for the entire global community, it is imperative that competent law enforcement agencies not only cooperate fully and readily at the national level but also exchange intelligence and information with their counterparts in other countries with a minimum level of delay and bureaucratic procedure. Such cooperation may be facilitated through soundly constructed bilateral and multilateral agreements. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention will encourage such processes by initiating or facilitating contacts between national law enforcement agencies through events such as meetings of subsidiary bodies of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs and support for subregional memoranda of understanding. In these and other endeavours, it will support and in turn seek the support of international bodies such as the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) and the Customs Cooperation Council (also called the World Customs Organization).

79. When substances are seized, analysis of samples are required for evidential purposes and to indicate identification, composition and provenance of those materials. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention has developed kits for conducting field tests for both drugs and precursors that can be used for on-the-spot checks. Technical assistance in the form of training and actual equipment is also provided to Governments for the establishment of laboratory units in which more detailed analyses may be performed. In addition, collaboration between various laboratories is coordinated to map the occurrence, flow and availability of seized materials and to establish and share reference samples of illicit drugs.

International cooperation against organized crime and money-laundering

80.Unilateral and even bilateral measures to combat crime are regarded as being of limited effectiveness in the face of criminal groups engaged in drug trafficking and related criminal activities. Recent political and economic changes in a number of regions have provided criminal groups with new opportunities. While organized crime has become predominantly transnational in character, law enforcement around the world remains principally local and national. Without greater international cooperation, it is difficult to ensure sustainable results against criminal operations that span countries and continents.

81. The fight against organized transnational criminal activities on a regional scale is the most feasible goal in the context of the law enforcement component of SCOPE. The goal is to strengthen or establish cooperation mechanisms among law enforcement agencies and criminal justice systems in order to foster coherent and effective action against criminal groups. A major objective of any strategy to counteract the penetration of organized crime into society must be to control corruption and to sever the ties of organized crime with political and criminal justice authorities. Bribery of civil servants, influential politicians and staff of private enterprises is a typical tactic employed by organized crime to ensure protection and escape detection, as well as to avoid

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disruption of its international activities. Corruptive practices are also used by criminal organizations for the concealment of the illicit origin of the proceeds of crime in the money-laundering circuit.

82. In the framework of the Naples Political Declaration and Global Action Plan, the strengthening of international cooperation at the investigative, prosecutorial and judicial levels appears essential. A growing number of States are developing mutual assistance ties and are endeavouring to implement existing bilateral and multilateral conventions and agreements concerning extradition and mutual legal assistance. States should also encourage the development of a basic intelligence-gathering capability, while respecting individual human rights and fundamental freedoms.

83. Preventing and controlling the use of proceeds from organized crime can break the vicious circle of the reinvestment of such proceeds in illicit industries and weaken criminal organizations. Fighting money laundering is a complex matter that requires intervention in the banking and financial systems. Given the mobility, the importance and the intricacy of financial flows at the international level, concerted action on the part of all Member States is required, both to strengthen their national control systems and to develop international cooperation. The 1988 Convention provides the foundation for international cooperation in this area by requiring parties to establish as offences in their domestic law the laundering of such proceeds and to cooperate in the investigation and prosecution of such offences. A number of measures, such as freezing or seizing assets, have been identified by States, regional groups and organizations, such as the 40 recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force established by the heads of States or Government of the Group of Seven major industrialized countries and the President of the European Commission, or the 19 recommendations of the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force on combating money-laundering. Most countries still have to utilize these important tools. Measures to simplify confiscation proceedings, harmonize procedures and increase international cooperation in this area might be proposed.

84. The United Nations global programma against money-laundering, an undertaking of the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention, offers to Governments comprehensive services to help counter money laundering. These include research on various aspects of the problem, the provision of legal advice and drafting assistance for amending legislation and establishing the necessary administrative framework for implementing countermeasures, the training of law enforcement and judicial officers and the provision of assistance in establishing financial intelligence units and internal procedures to detect and report suspicious transactions in banking systems. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention is also planning to establish a network of regional advisers on criminal justice matters.

Support to eliminate the abuse of opiates and coca derivatives

85. While the cultivation of opium poppy and coca bush takes place in a limited number of countries, the abuse of illicit opiates and coca derivatives is spreading all over the world. Given the need to address with equal force both ends of the supply and demand chain, all alternative development plans of producing countries -on which the national components of SCOPE are based-contain demand reduction activities. Most other countries worldwide have adopted plans aimed at the reduction of drug abuse through coordinated packages of prevention, treatment and rehabilitation initiatives. A growing number of Governments are committed to quantified and time-bound goals concerning the reduction of drug abuse among their populations.

86. The multilateral commitment to support national demand reduction efforts is also growing. In the current biennium, UNDCP proposes to spend some US$ 22 million in 80 countries on technical assistance in demand reduction. Global initiatives with other agencies such as the International Labour Organisation and the World Health Organization are mobilizing communities to prevent abuse among young people and in the workplace. The knowledge gained from these and other programmes is used to provide guidance to Member States and to

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ensure that the next generation of demand reduction interventions takes into account the lessons learned from past successes and failures.

87. One of the most important aspects of demand reduction is preventing young people from taking drugs. UNDCP is planning a major event that will take place in Canada in April 1998, involving the participation of 30 grass-root youth organizations. One of the results of the event will be the establishment of a global network of youth programmes working for the prevention of drug abuse. A message from the meeting will be made available to the General Assembly at its twentieth special session, together with a charter drafted by young people calling for a twenty-first century free of drugs, which was launched at a joint meeting of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and UNDCP held in February 1998. The growing importance attached to demand reduction is also reflected in the consideration by the General Assembly at its special session of a draft declaration on the guiding principles of drug demand reduction-the first time ever that demand reduction concerns have received such prominence in a global forum.

Overall trend monitoring and forecasting

88. The cultivation monitoring system will be the main tool to test the progress achieved in the implementation of SCOPE. Drug trafficking, drug consumption and general economic and social trends will also be surveyed to obtain an accurate picture of the evolving situation and to anticipate any side effect.

89. The decreased availability of opium and coca paste in the major producing areas would likely result in an increase in prices at the producer level and create an incentive to start or increase opium poppy and coca bush cultivation in other areas. This "balloon effect" will be covered by the cultivation monitoring system.

90. The reduced availability of illicit opiates and coca derivatives could generate a shift towards the production of, trafficking in and consumption of other illicit drugs. Synthetic drugs, in particular amphetamine-type stimulants, could see their market share increasing. Drug trafficking organizations will not accept the disruption of one of their main sources of illicit profits. In some countries, this might result in violent reactions against the Government and agencies involved in elimination programmes, as well as pressure exerted by trafficking organizations on the cultivators to continue their activity.

91. Tens of thousands of workers and their families who are currently employed, either in commercial coca farms-notably in Colombia-or in the later stages of the production process, and who are not eligible for alternative development programmes would see their income dwindle and would need other sources of revenue. That might result in further migrations from rural to urban areas and, if the economy cannot provide such people with legitimate jobs, they could turn to criminal activities. This also applies to the numerous people employed as small-scale drug couriers by trafficking organizations.

92. The success of alternative development efforts depends to a large extent on the economic viability of legitimate alternative products and price and trade conditions at the national and international levels. The commitment to secure and sustain economic conditions favourable to alternative development has to be reiterated and monitored during the implementation of SCOPE

93. The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention is strengthening its ability to monitor trends in the production of, trafficking in and consumption of illicit drugs and precursors. As to other, more general possible consequences of the implementation of SCOPE such as those cited above, there are plans to establish a capacity to provide information on the development of the situation and on the progress and impact of the strategy and to identify new developments requiring either adaptations of the ongoing interventions or new measures. This capacity will be part of the mechanism established in the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention to contribute to the overall coordination of SCOPE.

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E. Execution and financing

Execution

94. The implementation of SCOPE, which will extend over a period of l0 years (1999-2008), with activities at the global, regional and national levels in various sectors and involving numerous partners, will require flexible but strong coordination.

95. Execution at the country level will be the responsibility of the Government concerned. National drug control plans already assign specific functions to ministries and other Governmental institutions, as well as local organizations and non-Governmental partners. In most cases a national coordinating body is established. Funding and technical cooperation agencies play a role tailored to the needs of the country and/or the type of programmes undertaken.

96. In the framework of SCOPE, existing partnerships with, and among, bilateral and multilateral agencies will have to be tightened and reoriented as necessary. Among the current and potential partners are international financial institutions (in particular the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank), UNDP, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the United Nations Office for Project Services. Coordinating mechanisms established under memoranda of understanding or other such initiatives will be involved in the implementation and coordination of regional activities. Major regional institutions such as the Organization of American States (OAS), the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and ASEAN will also be involved.

97.The Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention will play a central role in the establishment and functioning of the coordinating mechanism at the global level. This will include four main responsibilities: (a) overall monitoring of, and reporting on, the implementation of SCOPE; (b) overall monitoring of, and reporting on, the impact of SCOPE; (c) facilitation of fund-raising; and (d) technical cooperation activities in selected areas such as institution-building, training, standard-setting and best-practice projects.

Funding arrangements

Financial requirements

98. The table below summarizes total financial requirements for the implementation of SCOPE. The figures are based on information provided by UNDCP country offices in consultation with their Governmental counterparts, as well as proposed activities at the regional and global levels. They are still preliminary in nature. However, even in this rough form, they provide a useful indication of the magnitude of the financial implications and of the distribution by category of interventions, allowing timely consideration of possible funding mechanisms. A breakdown by country and region is not provided here, as current estimates are subject to ongoing discussions and review with the Governments concerned.

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Financial requirements for the implementation of the Strategy for Coca and Opium Poppy Elimination, 1999-2008
 (Millions of United States dollars)

The one-third and two-thirds compact

99. The resources required to implement SCOPE will come from the Governments of the countries concerned, bilateral donors and international organizations. International assistance may take the form of grants and loans. The possibility to raise funds from the private sector through donations may be pursued by Governments, but it is not likely to yield significant results at the aggregate level. On the other hand, the private sector will have an important role in the form of productive investments in the area of production. This is to be encouraged by Governmental measures, such as tax breaks and complementary public investment programmes, as well as preferential trade agreements at the international level.

100. Although the relative distribution between the three possible public sources (Governments of producing countries, bilateral donors and multilateral organizations) will vary considerably depending on the specific socio-economic situation of each country, it is estimated that about one third of the total requirements could be covered by the Governments concerned and that the remaining two thirds could be covered by the international community. About two thirds of the latter component would come from donor countries through bilateral arrangements and about one third would come from multilateral organizations.

International banks and debt renegotiation

101. Two options are being considered to complement Government and bilateral and multilateral donor grant funds. One option is to establish special loan mechanisms for drug control plans and, in particular, alternative development programmes. The second option involves the renegotiation and conversion of the debts of the producing countries concerned.

102. Funding packages to support national programmes could therefore include four main components: loans, converted debts, grants and Government resources. The relative share for each component should preferably follow accepted distribution standards. Borrowing conditions would be based on set criteria, including the development situation of the country concerned, the resources at its disposal and the size and nature of the problem to be addressed. Repayment conditions could be determined by performance criteria, the main and most obvious one being that illicit crop cultivation has stopped in the country. A country that has succeeded in eliminating illicit production would then see its debt totally or partially cancelled, the rest being reimbursed at favourable conditions in the case of partial repayment.

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103. One possible mechanism envisaged for the establishment of special loans would involve international financial institutions-in particular the World Bank and regional development banks-and the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention. Other international agencies with technical know-how, such as UNDP and FAO, could also be associated. Work on the financial and loan management side would be entrusted to the banks, while the Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention would have a substantive part, providing expertise for situation and request assessments, programma implementation and progress monitoring. One option could be not to establish a centralized fund but to split it between the partners involved (for example, UNDCP, the InterAmerican Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank). Each of the participating institutions would allocate resources for the purpose of the fund within their own financial systems, the consistency of the overall mechanism being preserved through common methodological framework and guidelines, as well as a joint monitoring system.

104. The international financial institutions have three main mechanisms to provide resources to their members that are developing countries. The first one provides loans with preferable interest rates and repayment terms. The second one targets the poorest developing countries, which have the possibility to receive concessional loans, interest-free (with a small service charge) and with repayment terms of up to 40 years. The third mechanism allows the provision of grants and technical assistance. Priorities for these banks have evolved over the years, and poverty alleviation and social development projects now receive increased attention.

105. In addition to these main mechanisms, the banks have developed a number of partnerships, notably with international organizations such as UNDP, and special funds for specific purposes allowing the provision of packages mixing loans, grants and technical assistance. One recent example is the Global Environment Facility (GEF) established by the World Bank, UNDP and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1994 with an initial trust fund of US$ 2 billion, to be committed over a three-year period. GEF is a financial mechanism that provides grants and concessional funds to recipient countries for projects and activities to protect the environment. The World Bank is the repository of the trust fund and is responsible for project investments. UNDP is responsible for technical assistance activities and capacity-building. lt helps identify projects consistent with the purpose of GEF and national sustainable development strategies. lt is also charged with running the small grants programma for non-Governmental organizations and community groups. UNEP acts as a catalyst for the development of scientific and technical analysis. lt also manages the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel, an independent advisory body that provides scientific and technical guidance to GEF. The countries eligible for GEF funds are those eligible to borrow from the World Bank or to receive technical assistance grants from UNDP through a country programma. The latter criterion could be of interest to countries such as Afghanistan or Myanmar, where UNDCP is providing assistance. Governments may apply for GEF funds directly at any of the three implementing agencies. GEF funds are intended to complement, not substitute for, regular aid programmes. They cover the additional cost of measures to achieve global environment benefits.

106. The GEF concept could be adapted to suit the needs of SCOPE. This could be done through a partnership between UNDCP, the World Bank and/or the regional banks and UNDP. The GEF system would of course need substantial adjustments to take into consideration the specificity of the drug production problem and the fact that there is a time-frame set for the elimination of illicit crop cultivation. Based on the current estimated needs, an amount of US$ 1 billion should suffice to cover the loans, complementary grants and technical assistance.

107. There are various possibilities for the second incentive mechanism mentioned above. ne banks and such international institutions as the Paris Club have gained extensive experience in the renegotiation and total or partial cancellation of debts of developing countries. The special feature in relation to SCOPE would be that debts would not be renegotiated or cancelled due to economic difficulties but because of the success of the programmes funded. One possibility would be that the special fund could be established for a limited duration only, at the end of which debts would be settled and contributors to the fund reimbursed (in the form of a credit with a maturity corresponding to the term of the loan provided by the fund) or would accept to write off the debt.

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and convent each annual payment into a grant as long as illicit crop cultivation is not resumed. Another possibility would be to link the cancellation of some outstanding debts incurred in the context of other development programmes to the elimination of illicit crop cultivation in the countries concerned.

References

1. United Nations, Treaty Series, vol. 976, No. 14152
2. Official Records of the United Nations Conference for the Adoption of a Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances, Vienna, 25 November-20 December 1988, vol. 1 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.94.X1.5)
3. Report of the International Conference on Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking, Vienna, 17-26 June 1987 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E. 87.I. 1 8), chap. I, sect. A